CAN WE IDENTIFY WHO WILL ADHERE TO LONG-TERM PHYSICAL-ACTIVITY - SIGNAL-DETECTION METHODOLOGY AS A POTENTIAL AID TO CLINICAL DECISION-MAKING

Signal detection methodology was used to identify the best combination of predictors of long-term exercise adherence in 269 healthy, initial ly sedentary adults ages 50-65 years. Less educated individuals who we re assigned to supervised home-based exercise of either higher or lowe r intensity and who were less stressed and less fit at baseline than o ther individuals had the greatest probability of successful adherence by the 2nd year. Overweight individuals assigned to a group-based exer cise program were the least likely to be successful 2 years later. Pre dictors of short-term (1-year) adherence were generally similar to pre dictors of 2-year adherence. Signal detection analysis may be useful f or identifying subgroups of people at risk for underadherence who subs equently might be targeted for intervention.