Factors associated with pilot error in aviation crashes

Background: The importance of pilot error in aviation crashes has long been recognized. However, understanding and preventing pilot error remains the foremost challenge in aviation safety. Objective: This study aims to identi fy pilot characteristics and crash circumstances that are associated with t he presence of pilot error in a large sample of aviation crashes. Methods: Different data files compiled by the National Transportation Safety Board f or 329 major airline crashes, 1,627 commuter/air taxi crashes, and 27,935 g eneral aviation crashes for the years 1983-96 were merged; and the presence of pilot error was analyzed in relation to variables indicating the charac teristics of the pilot-in-command, crash circumstance, and aircraft. Multiv ariate logistic regression modeling was performed to assess the association s of individual variables with the likelihood of pilot error given a crash. Results: Pilot error was a probable cause in 38% of the major airline cras hes, 74% of the commuter/air taxi crashes, and 85% of the general aviation crashes. Among the factors examined, instrument meteorological condition an d on-airport location were each associated with a significantly increased o dds of pilot error. The likelihood of pilot error decreased as pilot certif icate rating increased in commuter/air taxi and general aviation crashes. N either pilot age nor gender was independently associated with the odds of p ilot error. With adjustment for pilot characteristics and crash circumstanc es, flight experience as measured in total flight time showed a significant protective effect on pilot error in general aviation crashes. Conclusions: The prevalence and correlates of pilot error in aviation crashes vary with the type of flight operations. Adverse weather is consistently associated with a significantly elevated likelihood of pilot error, possibly due to in creased performance demand.