Ns. Reynard et al., The flood characteristics of large UK Rivers: Potential effects of changing climate and land use, CLIM CHANGE, 48(2-3), 2001, pp. 343-359
A continuous flow simulation model (CLASSIC) has been used to assess the po
tential impact of climate and land use changes on the flood regimes of larg
e U.K. catchments. Climate change scenarios, based on the HadCM2 experiment
s from the Hadley Centre, are applied to the Severn and Thames rivers. The
analysis shows that, for the 2050s, the climate change scenarios result in
an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of flooding events in these
rivers. The various ways of applying the rainfall scenario can have a sign
ificant effect on these general conclusions, although generally do not affe
ct either the direction or consistency of the changes. While `best guess' l
and use changes show little impact on flood response, a 50% increase in for
est cover could counter-act the impact of climate change. As would be expec
ted, a large change in the urban cover of the catchments does have a large
effect on the flood regimes, increasing both the frequency and magnitude of
floods significantly beyond the changes due to climate alone. Further rese
arch is required into the potential impacts of seasonal changes in the dail
y rainfall and potential evaporation regimes, land use changes and the inte
raction between the two.