Modelling the recent time trends in UK permanent health insurance recovery, mortality and claim inception transition intensities

Models representing the underlying trends in UK permanent health insurance (PHI) recovery, mortality and claim inception transition intensitives over the 20 year calendar period, from 1975 to 1994 inclusive, are proposed. The investigation of such trends is of special interest given that the three t ransition intensities, with stationary estimates based on the equivalent gr ouped data for the quadrennial observation window 1975-1978, form an import ant part of UK continuous mortality investigation (CMI) Bureau multiple-sta te model for PHI business and play an important role in the pricing and res erving for PHI sickness benefits. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.