PREDICTING THE ESTIMATED USE OF ALTERNATIVES TO INCARCERATION

A greater use of sentencing alternatives to incarceration may help to reduce problems related to prison crowding and high costs of incarcera tion. However, a judge's ability to use these alternatives more freque ntly may be hindered by state sentencing policies designed to reduce j udicial sentencing discretion. A study of a national random sample of 181 chief trial court judges revealed that state sentencing policies, court size, and the degree of plea bargaining in a judge's court docke t are significant predictors of a judge's estimated use of alternative s to incarceration. Also, these variables are significant predictors o f a judge's willingness to use alternatives for specific groups of fel ons constituting significant proportions of state prison populations. Consistent with the latter finding, a descriptive analysis further rev ealed that judges who perceive less use of alternatives for felony off enders reside predominantly in states with more crowded prisons.