Expectations formation and risk in three financial markets: Surveying whatthe surveys say

Authors
Citation
R. Macdonald, Expectations formation and risk in three financial markets: Surveying whatthe surveys say, J ECON SURV, 14(1), 2000, pp. 69-100
Citations number
86
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
Journal title
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS
ISSN journal
09500804 → ACNP
Volume
14
Issue
1
Year of publication
2000
Pages
69 - 100
Database
ISI
SICI code
0950-0804(200002)14:1<69:EFARIT>2.0.ZU;2-U
Abstract
This paper attempts to provide a logical overview of the literature which e xploits survey data to examine issues of expectations formation and risk av ersion in financial markets. Our survey suggests that: short term expectati ons are excessively volatile and exhibit bandwagon effects, while longer te rm expectations appear to be regressive and therefore stabilising; in bond and foreign exchange markets the standard result of forward rate biasedness is due in part to time-varying premia; recent research using disaggregate foreign exchange survey data demonstrates the importance of heterogeneous e xpectations.