Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: The NFL betting market revisited

This paper examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) be tting market. Previous econometric work on the subject has been based on le ast squares estimators, and has been marred by non-normal errors, which hav e cast doubt on standard hypothesis testing procedures. It is found that th e negative binomial distribution provides a good description of points scor ed in NFL football games, but no significant departures from market efficie ncy were discovered. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.