THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE AND CO2 FERTILIZATION ON AGRICULTURE IN QUEBEC

The agricultural sector forms an important part of the economy of Queb ec. The risk of global increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and a ssociated climatic change and their influence on agriculture need to b e assessed. Although many studies have been conducted on the effect of climate change on agriculture in various parts of the world, fewer st udies have focused on the combined effects of climatic change and CO2 fertilisation on agriculture. This study, using the outputs of the Can adian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model coupled with the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAG) crop model, attempts to asses s the response of agricultural productivity to both direct (or fertili sation) and indirect (or climatic) effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, for a variety of crops including C-3 and C-4 cereals, legumes, vegetables and special crops grown in Quebec. It appears tha t C-4 cereal (corn and sorghum) crops would benefit by climate change but would be least favoured by CO2 fertilisation effect. (C) 1997 Publ ished by Elsevier Science B.V.