The negative predictive value of spiral computed tomography for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism in patients with nondiagnostic ventilation-perfusion scans

BACKGROUND: There is no noninvasive method to rule out pulmonary embolism w hen the clinical suspicion for pulmonary embolism is high. We did a prospec tive observational study to determine the negative predictive value of spir al computed tomography (CT) in this situation. METHODS: We performed spiral CT scans of the thorax in consecutive patients with high clinical suspicion of pulmonary embolism with intermediate or lo w probability ventilation-perfusion scans. Patients with negative or indete rminate spiral CT results had conventional angiography at the discretion of the attending physician. Only patients with positive spiral CT results or positive conventional angiograms were treated. All patients were observed f or 6 months for evidence of venous thromboembolic disease. Clinical outcome without treatment or the results of conventional angiography were used as reference standards. False-negative results were defined as a negative spir al CT with a positive conventional angiogram or any diagnosis of venous thr omboembolism within 6 months. RESULTS: Among the 103 patients who were studied, spiral CT scans were posi tive in 22 patients, indeterminate in 10 patients, and negative in 71 patie nts. Twenty-seven (26%) patients had pulmonary embolism by clinical outcome , including 3 of the 71 patients with negative spiral CT scans and 2 of the 10 patients with indeterminate scans. A negative spiral CT result had a li kelihood ratio of 0.12 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.04 to 0.35) with a negative predictive value of 96% (95% CI: 88% to 99%). Using conventional a ngiography only as the reference standard, a negative spiral CT result had a likelihood ratio of 0.08 (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.31) and a negative predictive value of 93% (95% CI: 77% to 98%). CONCLUSIONS: Spiral CT has a high negative predictive value for pulmonary e mbolism and may replace conventional angiography in the workup of pulmonary embolism. Patients with indeterminate spiral CT results should be consider ed for conventional angiography. (C) 2001 by Excerpta Medica, Ins.