Practical application of uncertainty analysis

Uncertainty analysis, based on Differential Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo Analysis, has been used in several research projects in order to esti mate reliability of results, especially in empirical validation-based proje cts where both measured and predicted uncertainty bands need to be evaluate d However, such analyses have been time-consuming, involving either repetit ive manual changing of the input parameters followed by a simulation run, o r involving the writing of specific programs to automate the process. Their use has, in consequence, been restricted. This paper reviews the sources o f uncertainty in the predictions from thermal simulation programs. It then describes how uncertainty analysis has been incorporated into the thermal s imulation program ESP-r. An example of its application is given. (C) 2001 E lsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.