Impact of energy efficiency measures on the CO2 emissions in the residential sector, a large scale analysis

Like all industrialised countries, Belgium accepted to diminish its greenho use gas emissions in the frame of the Kyoto agreement. On top of the list f igures CO2. A major emission source for CO2 is burning fossil fuels. As the residential sector accounts for 28% of the country's annual energy consump tion and as this consumption mainly concerns fossil fuels, it has an equall y important share in the CO2 release. Hence, at first sight, the best polic y for a decrease is by improving the energy efficiency. The question to be solved, however, is which improvement could generate the reduction needed? This study discusses a methodology and comments simulations that help in an swering that question. The results are not as simple as one should like. Th e housing stock in fact acts as a conservatory system. For the case being, the impact of energy efficient new construction on the CO2 release remains quite marginal if the period considered does not extend beyond a decade. Th e effect becomes significant only over a longer period, on condition that m ore stringent energy efficiency measures are combined with a shift from new construction to retrofit and reconstruction Also a diminishing increase in the number of households may help in reducing energy consumption and CO2 r elease. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.