A Markov chain model of day to day changes in the Canadian forest Fire Weather Index

Authors
Martell, DL
Citation
Dl. Martell, A Markov chain model of day to day changes in the Canadian forest Fire Weather Index, INT J WILDL, 9(4), 2000, pp. 265-273
Citations number
19
Categorie Soggetti
Plant Sciences
Journal title
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
ISSN journal
10498001 → ACNP
Volume
9
Issue
4
Year of publication
2000
Pages
265 - 273
Database
ISI
SICI code
1049-8001(200012)9:4<265:AMCMOD>2.0.ZU;2-P
Abstract
A Markov chain is used to model day to day changes in the Fire Weather Inde x (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The res ults of statistical analyses of 26 years (1963 through 1988) of fire weathe r data recorded at 15 fire weather stations located across the province of Ontario suggest that it is reasonable to partition the fire season into thr ee subseasons and model day to day changes in the Fire Weather Index class within each subseason as a Markov chain of order 1.