Piping Plover survival in the Great Plains: An updated analysis

Population viability analyses for Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) are h ighly sensitive to survival estimates, especially those of adults. Thus, th e discrepancy between the previous adult survival estimate for the Great Pl ains Piping Plover population (0.664, SE = 0.057) and estimates from other regions and closely related species prompted us to re-ex amine banding data for Great Plains plovers. We used published data plus three additional yea rs of band resightings, data from banded juveniles, and a new modeling appr oach to estimate local annual survival rates of adults and immatures for a breeding site in central North Dakota in 1984-1994. Mean adult survival was 0.737 (SE = 0.092), and the temporal variance was 0.040-0.045. Immature su rvival was 0.318 (SE = 0.075), but true immature survival is probably highe r, mostly due to unknown but likely high dispersal rates. Based on our revi sed survival estimate for adult Piping Plovers and projections from publish ed plover population models, it is likely that the feasibility of recoverin g the Great Plains population is greater than previously thought.