The ultimate uncertainty - Intergenerational planning

The philosophic and practical aspects of intergenerational planning for a 5 0-100-year time frame are reviewed, with recognition of its speculative qua lity. Society's near term choice of future physical pathways based on compa rative quantitative benefit/cost/risk analyses of alternatives is usually m odified by the intervention of a variety of time-dependent, nontechnical va lue systems. Further, the continuous competition among society's disparate technical systems, capital investment choices, and planning objectives all contribute to the uncertainty of the intergenerational outcome of any plan. Nevertheless, the quantitative planning process provides an essential base . Benefit/cost/risk projections are discussed for both the case with a hist orical database and the case without such a historical base. The end-object ives and continuous nature of such benefit/cost/risk analyses are described .