On performing long-term predictions of ozone using the SOMS model

This study examined the potential of using the Simplified Ozone Modeling Sy stem (SOMS) (Venkatram et al., 1994. Atmospheric Environment 28, 3665-3678) to generate long-term ozone predictions that may be used to complement the results from more complex air quality models for creating control strategi es and establishing long-term trends. A sensitivity study was performed usi ng SOMS to study the application of a model, which is an exponential functi on of temperature, to estimate the intra-annual biogenic VOC concentration at the receptor in a 1-year run (i.e. 1988). The predictions were made for a core urban site in Baltimore, Maryland. After the sensitivity analyses wa s completed, the daily maximum ozone concentration (DMOC) was predicted for a 3-year (1987-1989) period for the Baltimore site. The results of the 3-y ear model prediction were compared with observations. (C) 2000 Elsevier Sci ence Ltd. All rights reserved.