Increasing trend of Type I diabetes in children and young adults in the province of Turin (Italy). Analysis of age, period and birth cohort effects from 1984 to 1996
G. Bruno et al., Increasing trend of Type I diabetes in children and young adults in the province of Turin (Italy). Analysis of age, period and birth cohort effects from 1984 to 1996, DIABETOLOG, 44(1), 2001, pp. 22-25
Aims/hypothesis. This study aimed to determine if the incidence of Type I (
insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus increased over time and if the time tr
end is attributable to linear trend, calendar period or birth cohort effect
s.
Methods. This study was based on a cohort of subjects aged 0-29 years from
1984 to 1996, who resided in the province of Turin, Italy. Poisson regressi
on models were used to estimate the effect of sex, age, calendar time and c
ohorts on incidence rates.
Results. The mean incidence rate in the age group of 0 to 29 years was 7.78
of 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.26-8.32), with a lower
risk in women than in men [rate ratio (RR): 0.76 (0.67-0.88)]. We found a
trend of incidence increasing over time (annual increase of risk 2.25 % a y
ear, 95 % CI 0.44-4.10). In Poisson regression analysis we found that model
was the one sex, age and a linear term attributable to either calendar per
iod or cohort effects. The linear term corresponds to a RR of 1.12 (1.02-1.
22, p = 0.015) for each 5-year age span.
Conclusion/interpretation. We found that the time trend in this Mediterrane
an area was similar in magnitude to that reported in northern European coun
tries. The increase was linear in pattern, each birth cohort and each calen
dar period showing a higher risk than the preceeding one with some evidence
of two steep increases in the incidence of Type I diabetes centered on the
years 1964 and 1984. We found that the incidence of diabetes increased in
the 0 to 14 age group and also in the older age group of 15 to 29 years and
that the age-period models were not statistically significantly better tha
n the age-cohort models.