Uncertainty, change, and war: Power fluctuations and war in the modern elite power system

This article examines the relationship between power fluctuations in the el ite power system and the frequency of war. A theory is developed and tested using a new dataset of elite powers and elite power wars. The theory posit s that fluctuations in the elite power system are related to war among elit e powers due to an increase in uncertainty that accompanies such fluctuatio ns. The theory is logically extended to contend that as elite power systems age (move temporally away from the point of fluctuation) the frequency of war will decrease, due to the decline of uncertainty. The theory is support ed by analysis employing an existing dataset collected by Jack Levy, as wel l as a new elite war dataset. Additionally, in terms of the type of fluctua tion and war, the study finds that as the system becomes more complex the i ncidence of war also increases.