Unemployment, economic theory, and property crime: A note on measurement

Drawing on rational choice theory, this study considers how best to measure unemployment within the context of the unemployment-property crime relatio nship. Specifically, we use ARIMA techniques to examine the relative effica cy of using the conventional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment rate and two alternative measures of the demand for labor as predictors of monthly counts of U.S. property offenses for the years 1982 through 1996. T he bivariate time series analyses indicate that while the BLS unemployment rate exhibits null effects, the number of individuals unemployed for 15 wee ks or more and the capacity utilization rate significantly affect the level of property crime. The implications of these results are discussed.