Drawing on rational choice theory, this study considers how best to measure
unemployment within the context of the unemployment-property crime relatio
nship. Specifically, we use ARIMA techniques to examine the relative effica
cy of using the conventional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment
rate and two alternative measures of the demand for labor as predictors of
monthly counts of U.S. property offenses for the years 1982 through 1996. T
he bivariate time series analyses indicate that while the BLS unemployment
rate exhibits null effects, the number of individuals unemployed for 15 wee
ks or more and the capacity utilization rate significantly affect the level
of property crime. The implications of these results are discussed.