"It could be us!": Cognitive and social psychological factors in UK National Lottery play

This study examines the cognitive and social psychological factors underlyi ng UK National Lottery play. A total of 384 respondents were asked about th eir own lottery playing behaviours, their knowledge of lottery odds and the ir beliefs about the role of skill, chance, luck and optimism in lottery pl ay. Using hypothetical scenarios, respondents were also asked to rate the l ikelihood of winning the lottery jackpot (matching all six numbers) with nu mber combinations reflecting different levels of apparent randomness, previ ous matches, near misses and prize size manipulations. Frequency of lottery play was found to be positively correlated with age, income, Instants scra tchcard play, gambling on horse/greyhound racing, the football pools, and b inge as well as with beliefs about skill, luck and optimism. Frequency of l ottery play was negatively correlated with general education and estimate o f relative win likelihoods based on the perceived randomness of number comb inations. Planned contrasts revealed that compared to individual (non-syndi cate) players, syndicate lottery players played more regularly and gambled more on the football pools. Results are discussed in the light of current c ognitive theories surrounding the misperception of probability and their re lation to lottery play and in the need for future models to recognise the s ocial factors inherent in syndicate-based lottery participation.