A formalism is given for predicting reactivity of complex systems by combin
ing electronic structure calculations with forcefield calculations within a
transition state theory framework. The theory is employed in combination w
ith the Fukui function to produce a simulation method capable of the ensemb
le sampling needed to examine sterically complex systems. An important link
age between reactivity information and energetic quantities is provided by
introduction of the Fukui overlap integral. This spatial overlap integral m
easures the coincidence of electron donating regions on a nucleophile with
electron accepting regions on the corresponding electrophilic reactant. We
show that configurations with high values of this overlap integral tend to
have lower density-functional theory energies. Thus, Fukui functions calcul
ated once on single isolated reactants can be used to quickly estimate the
reactivity of configurations generated using conventional forcefield-based
simulations. The correlation between energies and high overlap integrals ca
n also be used to identify initial guess configurations for transition stat
e searches. However, in the present implementation, real transition states
are not accessible because intramolecular geometry relaxation is not allowe
d. The proposed method is tested on electrophilic aromatic alkylation react
ions. Simulation results successfully reproduce experimental substituent ef
fects in a series of variously substituted aromatics. Especially encouragin
g is the ability of the simulations to predict steric effects in the reacti
on of toluene with a series of electrophiles of varying bulkiness. Further
applications, previously inaccessible to simulation, are expected in system
s where steric effects play a dominant role in determining reaction selecti
vity. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.