Lp. Waits et al., Estimating the probability of identity among genotypes in natural populations: cautions and guidelines, MOL ECOL, 10(1), 2001, pp. 249-256
Individual identification using DNA fingerprinting methods is emerging as a
critical tool in conservation genetics and molecular ecology. Statistical
methods that estimate the probability of sampling identical genotypes using
theoretical equations generally assume random associations between alleles
within and among loci. These calculations are probably inaccurate for many
animal and plant populations due to population substructure. We evaluated
the accuracy of a probability of identity (P-(ID)) estimation by comparing
the observed and expected P-(ID)), using large nuclear DNA microsatellite d
ata sets from three endangered species: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the br
own bear (Ursus arctos), and the Australian northern hairy-nosed wombat (La
siorinyus krefftii). The theoretical estimates of P-(ID), were consistently
lower than the observed P-(ID) and can differ by as much as three orders o
f magnitude. To help researchers and managers avoid potential problems asso
ciated with this bias, we introduce an equation for P-(ID) between sibs. Th
is equation provides an estimator that can be used as a conservative upper
bound for the probability of observing identical multilocus genotypes betwe
en two individuals sampled from a population. We suggest computing the actu
al observed P-(ID) when possible and give general guidelines for the number
of codominant and dominant marker loci required to achieve a reasonably lo
w P-(ID) (e.g. 0.01-0.0001).