Alternative forest management strategies under climatic change - Prospectsfor gap model applications in risk analyses

The projected global climate change will influence growth and productivity of natural and managed forests. Since the characteristics of the future reg ional climate are still uncertain and the response of our forests to change s in the atmospheric and climatic conditions may be both positive or negati ve, decision making in managed forests should consider the new risks and un certainties arising from climatic change, especially if the rotation period s are long. An extended version of the forest gap model FORSKA was applied to simulate the forest development at 488 forest inventory plots in the fed eral state of Brandenburg, Germany, under two climate and three management scenarios. The transient growth dynamics from 1990 to 2100 were investigate d at four sites in different parts of the state, representing the variabili ty of environmental and forest conditions within Brandenburg. The alternati ve management strategies led to distinct differences in forest composition after 110 years of simulation. The projected climate change affected both f orest productivity and species composition. The impacts of alternative mana gement scenarios are discussed. It is concluded that the extended forest ga p model can be a valuable tool to support decision making in forest managem ent under global change.