M. Lindner et al., Alternative forest management strategies under climatic change - Prospectsfor gap model applications in risk analyses, SILVA FENN, 34(2), 2000, pp. 101-111
The projected global climate change will influence growth and productivity
of natural and managed forests. Since the characteristics of the future reg
ional climate are still uncertain and the response of our forests to change
s in the atmospheric and climatic conditions may be both positive or negati
ve, decision making in managed forests should consider the new risks and un
certainties arising from climatic change, especially if the rotation period
s are long. An extended version of the forest gap model FORSKA was applied
to simulate the forest development at 488 forest inventory plots in the fed
eral state of Brandenburg, Germany, under two climate and three management
scenarios. The transient growth dynamics from 1990 to 2100 were investigate
d at four sites in different parts of the state, representing the variabili
ty of environmental and forest conditions within Brandenburg. The alternati
ve management strategies led to distinct differences in forest composition
after 110 years of simulation. The projected climate change affected both f
orest productivity and species composition. The impacts of alternative mana
gement scenarios are discussed. It is concluded that the extended forest ga
p model can be a valuable tool to support decision making in forest managem
ent under global change.