The role of peatlands in Finnish wood production - an analysis based on large-scale forest scenario modelling

Using the Finnish MELA model, a set of scenarios were produced and used to map the possibilities and risks surrounding the utilisation of peatlands in wood production in Finland. One of the scenarios was an estimate of allowa ble-cut calculated by maximising the net present value of the future revenu es using a four per cent interest rate subject to non-decreasing flow of wo od, saw logs and net income over a 50-year period, and net present value af ter the 50 year period greater or equal than in the beginning. The estimate for maximum regionally sustained removal in 1996-2005 was 68 million m(3) per year - approaching 74 million m(3) during the next decades. In this sce nario, 14 per cent of all cuttings during the period 1996-2005 would be mad e on peatlands, which comprise ca. 31 per cent of the total area of forestr y land. By the year 2025, the proportion of peatland cuttings would increas e to over 20 per cent. The increase in future cutting possibilities on peat lands compensated for a temporary decrease in cuttings and growing stock on mineral soils. The allowable-cut effect was especially pronounced in north ern Finland, where peatlands play an important role in wood production. In addition, the sensitivity of cutting possibilities for assumptions related to growth and price were analysed. The estimate of maximum sustainable yiel d as defined here seems to be fairly robust on the whole, except in norther n Finland where the cutting scenarios were sensitive to the changes in the price of birch pulpwood. The proportion of peatland stands that are profita ble for timber production depends on the interest rate: the higher the rate . of interest the less peatland stands are thinned. The effect of cutting p rofile on future logging conditions and resulting costs were analysed in tw o forestry centres. If clear cuttings on mineral soils are to be cut first, an increase in future logging costs is inevitable.