Diagnosing schizophrenia in the initial prodromal phase

Background: In schizophrenia research, early detection in the initial prodr ome before first psychotic episodes is a major topic. Therefore, the progno stic accuracy of initial prodromal symptoms was examined prospectively. Methods: The study sample was composed of patients referred to outpatient d epartments of German psychiatric university departments, because of diagnos tic problems, between 1987 and 1991, They were examined with the Bonn Scale for the Assessment of Basic Symptoms and the Ninth Version of the Present State Examination to detect an incipient schizophrenic disorder. Of 385 pat ients showing no schizophrenia-characteristic symptoms, between 1995 and 19 98, 110 with and 50 without initial prodromal symptoms were followed up and reexamined with the same instruments for a transition to schizophrenia. Results: During a mean follow-up period of 9.6 years. 79 (49.4%) of the 160 patients had transited to schizophrenia. The absence of prodromal symptoms excluded a subsequent schizophrenia with a probability of 96% (sensitivity : 0.98, false-negative predictions: 1.3%), whereas their presence predicted schizophrenia with a probability of 70% (specificity: 0.59; false-positive predictions: 20%). Certain disturbances, such as thought interference, dis turbances of receptive language, or visual distortions, predicted schizophr enia, even with a probability up to 91% (specificity: 0.85-0.91; false-posi tive predictions: 1.9%-7.5%). Conclusions: The Bonn Scale for the Assessment of Basic Symptoms operationa lization of prodromal symptoms performed well in the early detection of sch izophrenia. It therefore might be useful for the prediction of the disorder , especially if it is further refined to select those items with particular ly high prognostic accuracy.