An eclectic approach in energy forecasting: a case of Natural Resources Canada's (NRCan's) oil and gas outlook

Long-term energy outlooks acid forecasting models are assuming an increasin gly important role, given the concerns of greenhouse gas emissions, and the current need for analyzing options for meeting the Kyoto Target. The Focus of the paper is on oil and gas supply projections. We present useful insig hts into the complexities of projecting oil and gas supply, develop an anal ytical framework which explains the approach used by natural resources Cana da (NRCan) in preparing oil and gas supply forecasts, solve the oil and gas supply model (OGSM) and give the projections of oil and natural gas supply and demand to the year 2020. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights res erved.