Jw. Weatherly et Y. Zhang, The response of the polar regions to increased CO2 in a global climate model with elastic-viscous-plastic sea ice, J CLIMATE, 14(3), 2001, pp. 268-283
A global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (GCM) is used i
n simulations of climate with present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations, a
nd with CO2 increasing to double the present-day values. The Parallel Clima
te Model includes the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmos
pheric GCM, the Los Alamos National Laboratory ocean GCM, and the Naval Pos
tgraduate School dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model. The ocean and sea ice
grids are at substantially higher resolution than has been previously used
in global climate models. The model is implemented on distributed, paralle
l computer architectures to make computation on the high-resolution grids f
easible. The sea ice dynamics uses an elastic-viscous-plastic ice rheology
with an explicit solution of the ice stress tensor, which has not previousl
y been used in a coupled, global climate model.
The simulations of sea ice and the polar climate in the present-day experim
ent are compared with observed ice and climate data. The ice cover is too e
xtensive in both hemispheres, leading to a large area of lower-than-observe
d surface temperatures. The Arctic exhibits a persistent high pressure syst
em that drives the ice motion anticyclonically around the central Arctic. T
he ice thickness is greatest near the Chukchi Peninsula. Ice is exported th
rough the Fram Strait, though the Canadian Archipelago, and inward through
the Bering Strait. The modeled Antarctic sea ice moves at a faster speed th
an the observational data suggest. Many of the results and biases of the mo
del are similar to those of the NCAR Climate System Model, which has the sa
me atmospheric model component.
The response of the model to the increase in CO2 shows a significant thinni
ng of the Arctic sea ice by 0.5 m but only a 10% decrease in ice area. Ice
concentrations are reduced within the ice pack, while the ice edges are rel
atively unchanged. The Antarctic sea ice exhibits much less change in area
and little change in thickness, in agreement with the reduced warming in th
e entire Southern Hemisphere.