Planning for the next pandemic of influenza

Worldwide influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular and unpredictable intervals throughout history and it is confidently expected that they will continue to occur in the future. It is now recognised that these pandemics result when avian influenza A viruses succeed in adaption to and transmissi on between humans. The impact of pandemic influenza is substantial in terms of morbidity, mortality and economic cost and there is the potential for s erious social disruption. Influenza vaccines remain the most effective defe nce against influenza but will be in short supply during a pandemic, as wil l the new specific anti-influenza drugs, due to the lead-time required for production and rapid spread of the virus. To minimise the impact of pandemi cs it is imperative to maximise the availability of both vaccines and antiv irals and to ensure that they are used optimally. This requires planning at both the international and national levels, The World Health Organization has, therefore, developed a staged plan for responding to a pandemic threat which is based principally on its surveillance program. It has also prepar ed guidelines to assist national agencies in their planning. However, there may be further options for increasing our preparedness which should also b e considered. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.