Mathematical modelling of pseudorabies virus (syn. Aujeszky's disease virus) outbreaks aids eradication programmes: A review

Pseudorabies virus will be eradicated from the Netherlands if a typical inf ectious pig (R-ind) infects, on average, less than one other pig, In this r eview, we used a stochastic SIR model to estimate R-ind using data from the field and from experiments. Rind in sow herds was estimated to be signific antly less than 1 and in rearing and finishing pigs R-ind was higher than 1 . However, if R-ind is higher than 1, PRV can still be eradicated if one in fectious herd infects less than one other herd during the period that the h erd is infectious(R-herd <1). Some future developments in Dutch pig husband ry (e.g. group-housing of sows) and possible risks after halting vaccinatio n are also quantitatively evaluated.