MODELING TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS IN POLAR SNOW USING DAISY

A physics-based snow model has been calibrated using data collected at Halley Bay, Antarctica, during the International Geophysical Year. Va riations in snow temperature and density are well-simulated using valu es for the model parameters within the range reported from other polar field experiments. The effect of uncertainty in the parameter values on the accuracy of the predictions is no greater than the effect of in strumental error in the input data. Thus, this model can be used with parameters determined a priori rather than by optimization. The model has been validated using an independent data set from Halley Bay and t hen used to estimate 10 m temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula plat eau over the last half-century.