An assessment of the economics of future electric power generation optionsand the implications for fusion

This study examines the potential range of electric power costs for some ma jor alternatives to fusion electric power generation when it is ultimately deployed in the middle of the 21st century and, thus, offers a perspective on the cost levels that fusion must achieve to be competitive. The alternat ive technologies include coal burning, coal gasification, natural gas, nucl ear fission, and renewable energy. The cost of electricity (COE)from the al ternatives to fusion should be in a 30 to 53 mills/ kW.h (1999 dollars) ran ge if carbon sequestration is not needed, 30 to 61 mills/kW.h if sequestrat ion is required, or as high as 83 mills/kW.h for the worst-case scenario fo r cost uncertainty. The reference COE range for fusion was estimated at 65 to 102 mills/kW.h for 1- to 1.3-GW(electric) scale power plants, based on t he tokamak concept. Tokamak fusion costs will have to be reduced and/or cos t-effective alternative nontokamak concepts devised before fusion will be c ompetitive with the alternatives for the future production of electricity. Fortunately, there are routes to achieve this goal. Recent results from fus ion experiments and developments in technology and engineering solutions in dicate that lower cost fusion power plants are possible at the 1-GW(electri c) level. Another general route for fusion to reduce costs is to go to larg e plant sizes [multigigawatts (electric)].