Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3

1 We model the potential vegetation and annual net primary production (NPP) of China on a 10' grid under the present climate using the processed-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. The simulated distribution of the vegetation was in general in good agreement with the potential natu ral vegetation based on a numerical comparison between the two maps using t he DeltaV statistic (DeltaV = 0.23). Predicted and measured NPP were also s imilar, especially in terms of biome-averages. 2 A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model including sulphate a erosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario for 2070-2099. S imulated vegetation maps from two different CO2 scenarios (340 and 500 p.p. m.v.) were compared to the baseline biome map using DeltaV. Climate change alone produced a large reduction in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar des ert, and a general pole-ward shift of the boreal, temperate deciduous, warm -temperate evergreen and tropical forest belts, a decline in boreal deciduo us forest and the appearance of tropical deciduous forest. The inclusion of CO2 physiological effects led to a marked decrease in moist savannas and d esert, a general decrease for grasslands and steppe, and disappearance of x eric woodland/scrub. Temperate deciduous broadleaved forest, however, shift ed north to occupy nearly half the area of previously temperate mixed fores t. 3 The impact of climate change and increasing CO2 is not only on biogeograp hy, but also on potential NPP. The NPP values for most of the biomes in the scenarios with CO2 set at 340 p.p.m.v. and 500 p.p.m.v. are greater than t hose under the current climate, except for the temperate deciduous forest, temperate evergreen broadleaved forest, tropical rain forest, tropical seas onal forest, and xeric woodland/scrub biomes. Total vegetation and total ca rbon is simulated to increase significantly in the future climate scenario, both with and without the CO2 direct physiological effect. 4 Our results show that the global process-based equilibrium terrestrial bi osphere model BIOME3 can be used successfully at a regional scale.