Exploring natural and anthropogenic variation of climate

This lecture discusses the low-frequency variability of surface temperature using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-surface model developed at the Geoph ysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Despite the highly. idealized parame trization of various physical processes, the coupled model simulates reason ably well the variability of local and global mean surface temperature. The first half of the lecture explores the basic physical mechanisms responsib le for the variability. The second half examines the trends of local surfac e temperature during the last half century in the context of decadal variab ility simulated by the coupled model.