Predictive model for survival at the conclusion of a damage control laparotomy

BACKGROUND: We employed modern statistical and data mining methods to model survival based on preoperative and intraoperative parameters for patients undergoing damage control surgery. METHODS: One hundred seventy-four parameters were collected from 68 damage control patients in prehospital, emergency center, operating room, and inte nsive care unit (ICU) settings. Data were analyzed with logistic regression and data mining. Outcomes were survival and death after the initial operat ion. RESULTS: Overall mortality was 66.2%. Logistic regression identified pH at initial ICU admission (odds ratio: 4.4) and worst partial thromboplastin ti me from hospital admission to ICU admission (odds ratio: 9.4) as significan t. Data mining selected the same factors, and generated a simple algorithm for patient classification. Model accuracy was 83%. CONCLUSIONS: Inability to correct pH at the conclusion of initial damage-co ntrol laparotomy and the worst PTT can be predictive of death. These factor s may be useful to identify patients with a high risk of mortality. (C) 200 1 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.