This paper reports a study of predicted values of the 1 : 50 yr windspeed p
roduced by four different methods of extreme value analysis. The methods us
ed were the obsolete Classical Gumbel method; Gumbel-Lieblein BLUE; the Mod
ified Gumbel method and the Method of Independent Storms. For each method,
synthetic wind records were generated consisting of 100 storm maxima for ea
ch year and for a duration of 10(10)50 years. The parent distribution was c
hosen so that q = V-2 had an exponential probability distribution. For each
method tested, 10 000 data sets were analysed and the slope and intercept
parameters were used to predict a Value of q(50) for each set. The 10 000 r
ealisations of q50 were then examined for bias and statistical variation ab
out the (known) theoretical value. The tests indicate that where sufficient
ly continuous data is available, the Method of Independent Storms should be
used. Otherwise if only annual maxima are available, Gumbel-Lieblein BLUE
gives the best results for small data sets, but Modified Gumbel is an accep
table alternative, particularly for samples N > 25. (C) 2001 Elsevier Scien
ce Ltd. All rights reserved.