Test and application of the time- and magnitude predictable-model to the intermediate and deep focus earthquakes in the subduction zones of the circum-Pacific belt

The test and application of the time and magnitude predictable model in the subduction zones around the circum-Pacific belt is performed. Each subduct ion zone was separated in several seismogenic regions on the basis of tecto nic and geometrical features of the subducting lithosphere and for three di fferent depth ranges. The data derived from these seismogenic regions were used in order to check the suitability of the regional time and magnitude p redictable model, as this model was defined for shallow events. The results obtained in the present study confirm that this model appropriately descri bes the behavior of deep seismicity in these regions, since a positive ((c) over bar = 0.31 +/- 0.003) and a negative ((C) over bar = -0.13 +/- 0.047) dependence were found for the logarithm of the interevent times and the ma gnitude of following mainshock, respectively, on the magnitude of the prece ding mainshock. Moreover, the slip-predictable model was rejected, since a negative dependence was found ((E) over bar = -0.19) between the interevent times and the magnitudes of the following mainshock. Probabilities of occu rrence of the future strong (M greater than or equal to 7.0) events in each seismogenic region have been determined for the next decade conditioned on the previous occurrence of such events. The magnitudes of the expected eve nts have also been estimated. Statistical tests for the estimated probabili ties exhibit a good correlation with the occurrence rate of such events. Fu rthermore, the statistical significance of the model has been studied throu gh additional tests. The results of this study demonstrate the validity of the regional time and magnitude predictable model in the areas examined. (C ) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.