The objective of this paper is to compare safety levels and trends in OECD
countries from 1980 to 1994 with the help of a statistical model and to lau
nch international discussion and further research about international compa
risons. Between 1980 and 1994, the annual number of fatalities decreased dr
astically in all the selected countries except Japan ( + 12%), Greece ( + 5
6%) and ex-East Germany (+ 50%). The highest decreases were observed in ex-
West Germany (- 48%), Switzerland (- 44%), Australia (- 40%), and UK ( - 39
%). In France, the decrease in fatalities over the same period reached 34%.
The fatality rate, an indicator of risk, decreased in the selected countri
es from 1980 to 1994 except in the east-European countries during the motor
ization boom in the late 1980s. As fatality rates are not sufficient for in
ternational comparisons, a statistical multiple regression model is set up
to compare road safety levels in 21 OECD countries over 15 years. Data were
collected from IRTAD(1) (International Road Traffic and Accident Database)
and other OECD statistical sources. The number of fatalities is explained
by seven exogenous (to road safety) variables. The model, pooling cross-sec
tional and time series data, supplies estimates of elasticity to the fatali
ties for each variable: 0.96 for the population; 0.28 for the vehicle fleet
per capita; - 0.16 for the percentage of buses and coaches in the motorise
d vehicle fleet; 0.83 for the percentage of youngsters in the population; -
0.41 for the percentage of urban population; 0.39 for alcohol consumption
per capita; and 0.39 for the percentage of employed people. The model also
supplies a rough estimate of the safety performance of a country: the regre
ssion residuals are supposed to contain the effects of essentially endogeno
us and unobserved variables, independent to the exogenous variables. These
endogenous variables are safety performance variables (safety actions, traf
fic safety policy, network improvements and social acceptance). A new indic
ator, better than the mortality rate, is then set upon the residuals. Mean
estimates of this indicator for the years 1980-1982 and the years 1992-1994
rank the countries in the beginning and at the end of the study period. Co
untries showing the best ranks (and thus the best performance) in 1980 and
1994 are Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway. The UK and Switzerland reach t
he top 5 in 1994. Greece, Belgium, Portugal and Spain are the last countrie
s in the classification along with, surprisingly, the USA. France was ranke
d 18th in 1980 and 15th in 1994 but is ranked amongst the five countries th
at most improved from 1980 to 1994. This model remains non definitive becau
se it is not able to distinguish between safety performance and unobserved
exogenous variables although these exogenous variables could explain more a
bout the differences in levels and trends between the countries. More compl
ex models, particularly highly sophisticated models regarding the number of
fatalities with breakdowns by road users or road classes would be needed t
o give a precise and profound ranking of safety levels and safety improveme
nts between countries. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.