A modelling approach to antlion (Neuroptera : Myrmeleontidae) distributionpatterns

The application of a model modified from Jeffree & Jeffree (1994) for inves tigating the distribution responses of selected antlion species to a climat e change scenario was explored in this study. Modifications include a multi variate capability that facilitates the incorporation of precipitation seas onality, and provides useful output in the form of probability of occurrenc e values for each species. The model can be used to interpolate the distrib utions of poorly sampled taxa as well as predict responses to a changing cl imate. It is predicted that species from the more arid western parts of Sou th Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts wher eas the species from the more mesic eastern parts will experience range con traction with limited range shift. The likelihood of successful range shift s will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation. Given the extent of: the predicted s patial responses, conservation planners can no longer afford to ignore futu re climate impacts on species distribution patterns.