The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands

Freshwater resources are a high-priority issue in the Pacific region. Water shortage is a serious problem in many small island states, and many depend heavily on rainwater as the source of their water. Lack of safe water supp lies is an important factor in diarrheal illness. There have been no previo us studies looking specifically at the relationship between climate variabi lity and diarrhea in the Pacific region. We carried out two related studies to explore the potential relationship between climate variability and the incidence of diarrhea in the Pacific Islands. In the first study, we examin ed the average annual rates of diarrhea in adults, as well as temperature a nd water availability from 1986 to 1994 for 18 Pacific Island countries. Th ere was a positive association between annual average temperature and the r ate of diarrhea reports, and a negative association between water availabil ity and diarrhea races. In the second study, we examined diarrhea notificat ions in Fiji in relation to estimates of temperature and rainfall, using Po isson regression analysis of monthly data for 1978-1998. There were positiv e associations between diarrhea reports and temperature and between diarrhe a reports and extremes of rainfall. These results are consistent with previ ous research and suggest that global climate change is likely to exacerbate diarrheal illness in many Pacific Island countries.