Expulsion is an important phenomenon in resistance spot welding. It involve
s loss of metal from the liquid nugget, which often results in the reductio
n of weld strength. Various models have been proposed to understand expulsi
on mechanisms. In these models the occurrence of expulsion is often treated
as a deterministic event, and depicted by a line (boundary) in conventiona
l lobe diagrams. In this study, statistical analysis is employed to explore
expulsion with consideration of the influence of random factors. Models ar
e built based on experimental data, and one steel and two aluminum alloys a
re used as examples. Expulsion probabilities are presented as a function of
electrode force, welding current, and time. Analytical models and their gr
aphical form of expression (contours and surfaces) are created to present e
xpulsion limits under various combinations of welding parameters. This stud
y provides not only quantitative model predictions on expulsion limits for
the materials studied, but also a generic statistical methodology that can
be used for analyzing expulsion in various material systems. [S1087-1357(00
)00602-X].