Outcome events in patients with claudication: A 15-year study in 2777 patients

Objective: The purpose of this study was to delineate the natural history o f claudication and determine risk factors for death. Methods: We reviewed the key outcomes (death, revascularization, amputation ) in 2777 male patients with claudication identified over 15 years at a Vet erans Administration hospital with both clinical and noninvasive criteria. Patients with rest pain or ulcers were excluded. Data were analyzed with li fe-table and Cox hazard models. Results: The mean follow-up was 47 months. The cohort exhibited a mortality rate of 12% per year, which was significantly (P < .05) more than the age- adjusted US male population. Among the deaths in which the cause was known, 66% were due to heart disease. We examined several baseline risk factors i n a multivariate Cox model, four were significant (P < .01) independent pre dictors of death: older age (relative risk [RR] = 1.3 per decade), lower an kle-brachial index (RR = 1.2 for 0.2 change), diabetes requiring medication (RR = 1.4), and stroke (RR = 1.4). The model can be used to estimate the m ortality rate for specific patients. Surprisingly, a history of angina and myocardial infarction mas nota significant predictor. Major and minor amput ations had a 10-year cumulative rate less than 10%. Revascularization proce dures occurred with a 10-year cumulative rate of 18%. Conclusions: We found a high mortality rate in this large cohort and four i ndependent risk factors that have a large impact on survival. Risk stratifi cation with our model may be useful in determining an overall therapeutic p lan for claudicants. A history of angina and myocardial infarction was not a useful predictor of death, suggesting that many patients in our cohort pr esented with claudication before having coronary artery symptoms. Our data also indicate that claudicants have a low risk of major amputation at 10-ye ar follow-up.