Predicted impact of attaining smoking reduction goals on mortality

The impact of reducing smoking initiation, increasing smoking cessation, an d combination approaches on life expectancy, deaths averted, and life-years gained in a birth cohort of 50,000 persons and in the state population (3. 6 million) were analyzed. A 60% reduction in initiation of smoking in adole scents would increase life expectancy by 0.42 years, Over the next 100 year s, there would be an additional 18,000 years of life for a birth cohort and an additional 675,000 years of life for the state's population. The reduct ion in mortality, however, would not begin before 35 years, and only 25% of the benefit would occur in the next 70 years. An increase in smoking cessa tion would have a smaller impact that would occur sooner. Maximum reduction in mortality could be achieved by reducing initiation and increasing cessa tion at all ages, but a reduction in mortality would not occur for several decades.