CLIMATE-CHANGE SIMULATIONS OF TASMANIAN PRECIPITATION USING MULTIPLE NESTING

The present-day precipitation climatology of Tasmania, Australia, has been simulated for January and July using a limited area model with mu ltiple nesting down to a resolution of 60 km. The results are superior to simulations at lower resolutions, although the high-resolution mod el produces excessive precipitation in regions of steep orography. A p reliminary precipitation climatology is constructed for 2xCO(2) condit ions from the results of the simulations for January and July. In the simulations, climate change causes precipitation to decrease over Tasm ania during January, while it is increased during July. Examination of daily precipitation frequency indicates that precipitation events in January become less intense, but those in July become more intense. Th e changes in,precipitation are related to modifications to the low-lev el synoptic fields. Some strengthening of low-level winds as a result of climate change is also noted for July.