Integrating transportation network and regional economic models to estimate the costs of a large urban earthquake

In this paper we summarize an integrated, operational model of losses due t o earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how the se losses affect the metropolitan economy. The procedure advances the infor mation provided by transportation and activity system analysis techniques i n ways that help capture the most important ecomonic implications of earthq uakes. Network costs and origin-destination requirements are modeled endoge nously and consistently. Indirect and induced losses associated with direct impacts on transportation and industrial capacity are distributed across z ones and ecomonic sectors. Preliminary results are summarized for a magnitu de 7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles.