Mj. Dennis et Wk. Ahn, Primacy in causal strength judgments: The effect of initial evidence for generative versus inhibitory relationships, MEM COGNIT, 29(1), 2001, pp. 152-164
The order in which people receive information has a substantial effect on s
ubsequent judgment and inference. Our focus is on the order of covariation
evidence in causal learning. The first experiment shows that the initial pr
esentation of evidence suggesting a generative causal relationship (the joi
nt presence or joint absence of cause and effect) leads to higher judged ca
usal strength than does the initial presentation of evidence suggesting an
inhibitory relationship (the presence of cause or effect in the absence of
the other). Additional studies show that this primacy effect is unlikely to
be due to fatigue or to an insufficient number of learning trials. These r
esults are not readily explained by current contingency-based or associativ
e theories of causal induction.