Spatial and stochastic simulation to compare two emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever epidemic

Two alternative emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine that could have been applied in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic were evaluated in a modified spatial, temporal and stochastic sim ulation model. InterCSF In strategy 1, vaccination would be applied only to overcome a shortage in destruction capacities, Destruction of all pigs on vaccinated farms distinguishes this strategy front strategy 2, which assume s intra-Community trade of vaccinated pig meat. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and three contact types. Disease spread is affected by control measures implem ented through different mechanisms. Economic results were generated by a se parate model that calculated the direct costs (including the vaccination co sts) and consequential losses for farmers and related industries subjected to control measures. The comparison (using epidemiological and economic res ults) between the different emergency-vaccination strategies with an earlie r simulated preventive-slaughter scenario led to some general conclusions o n the Dutch CSF epidemic. Both emergency-vaccination strategies were hardly more efficient than the non-vaccination scenario. The intra-Community trad e strategy (vaccination-strategy 2) was the least costly of all three scena rios, (C). 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.