Predictors of maltreatment recurrence at two milestones in the life of a case

This article reports the findings from two studies that examined the useful ness of the Illinois Child Endangerment Risk Assessment Protocol (CERAP) fo r predicting short-term maltreatment recurrence. The CERAP is a safety asse ssment tool designed to guide worker decision-making throughout the life of a case and is completed at several critical case milestones. Two milestone s were chosen - within 24 hours after the CPS investigator sees the alleged victim and within five days of case opening (for services to intact famili es) - for analysis in separate studies. For each study, a case control desi gn was used in which a sample of families who experienced an indicated repo rt of maltreatment recurrence within 60 days of CERAP completion was compar ed to a sample of families who did not experience maltreatment recurrence. Information from the CERAP was examined, as well as other case characterist ics that have been shown to be predictive of recurrence, such as type and s everity of abuse, number of previous indicated reports, and number of servi ces provided. Results indicated that some predictors of maltreatment recurrence varied de pending on the milestone (e.g., point in the life of the case) examined, wh ile others were predictive at both milestones. Age of the youngest child, s ingle-parent household, number of child problems (e.g., physical, emotional , behavioral), type of maltreatment and case disposition (e.g., referred fo r services versus no service referral) were the predictors of short-term re currence for investigation cases. Five days after the case had been opened for intact family services (usually post-investigation), the absence of a c ompleted CERAP form and lack of service provision were the milestone predic tors. At both milestones, the number of previous indicated reports on the p erpetrator and the presence of multiple caretaker problems (e.g., alcohol/d rug dependency, domestic violence) were predictive of short-term maltreatme nt recurrence. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for ris k/safety assessment and casework practice in general.