H. Kim et Rc. Fording, Does tactical voting matter? The political impact of tactical voting in recent British elections, COMP POLI S, 34(3), 2001, pp. 294-311
Although much has been written about tactical voting, few studies have atte
mpted to show its impact on the seat distribution within Parliament and sub
sequent government makeup in countries with single-member plurality systems
. The authors attempt to assess the magnitude and impact of tactical voting
in recent British general elections. They build a model of tactical voting
by identifying factors known to affect the level of tactical voting measur
able using available data. Based on this model, they generate predicted lev
els of tactical voting for all parties within each district. Based on these
predicted values, they adjust actual election data to produce a new set of
data containing a would-be election outcome in the absence of tactical vot
ing. By comparing actual election data, adjusted election data, and the sea
t share of political parties in the parliaments after these elections, they
discuss the political impact of tactical voting in the United Kingdom.