Modeling of gas demand using degree-day concept: Case study for Ankara

The demand for natural gas is rapidly increasing in Turkey as it is in the rest of the world. However, natural gas reserves and production are rather limited in Turkey. The bulk of the Turkish gets demand is met by imports. R ussia currently accounts for 69% of Turkey's gas supplies. Physical shortag es might occur; supplies for industrial production and household consumptio n could temporarily run short. Also, fluctuations in consumption might occu r due to climatic reasons or peak daily industrial energy demand Undergroun d gas storage is a necessity in order to regulate these seasonal, daily and hourly fluctuations. In order to effectively design and utilize undergroun d gas storage, it is necessary to identify the market requirements. In this study, Ankara was chosen as a pilot region due to its strategical i mportance of being the capital city of Turkey and a wine range of marketing surveys for the last seven years was performed. All of the factors influen cing the gas consumption and the relationships between these factors were a nalyzed. How does gas demand behave in extremely cold weather? How does the industrial part of the city act in the consumption behavior? What are the plans of the Municipality of Ankara, responsible for the execution of the n atural gas distribution project in Ankara? A model was developed based on d egree-day (DD) concept, including the annual number of customers, average D Ds, and the usage per customer. A history matching study was performed to verify the results of the model w ith the measured consumption data for the last seven years. Comparisons sho wed that the calculated consumption by DD model and measured daily consumpt ion were in good agreement. Finally by using the developed approach, the ga s demand was forecasted for Ankara up to 2005. The results of this study ca n be used to design underground gas storage facility near Ankara.