Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea

This work analyzes long-term changes in the annual maximum ice extent in th e Baltic Sea and Skagerrak between 1720 and 1997. It focuses on the sensiti vity of the ice extent to changes in air temperature and on the relationshi ps between the ice extent and large-scale atmospheric circulation. A signif icant regime shift in 1877 explains the decreasing trend in the ice extent. The regime shift indicates a change from a relatively cold climate regime to a relatively warm one, which is likely a result of changed atmospheric c irculation. In addition, the analysis shows that a colder climate is associ ated with higher variability in the ice extent and with higher sensitivity of the ice extent to changes in winter air temperature. Moreover, the ice e xtent is fairly well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) i ndex during winter, which supports the results of earlier studies. However, the moving correlation analysis shows that the relationship between the NA O index and the ice extent is not stationary over time. A statistical model was established that links the ice extent and a set of circulation indices . It not only confirms the importance of the zonal how but also implies the impact of meridional wind and vorticity. The usefulness of the statistical model is demonstrated by comparing its performance with that of a numerica l model and with independent observations. The statistical model achieves a skill close to that of the numerical model. We conclude that this model ca n be a useful tool in estimating the mean conditions of the ice extent from monthly pressures, allowing for the use of the general circulation model o utput for predictions of mean ice extent.