Natural disturbances produce openings in forest canopies. Gap opening
and closure create a mosaic of regenerating phases in the forest, whic
h are a source of environmental heterogeneity, contributing to the mai
ntenance of community diversity. In this study we measured the rate of
canopy closure using hemispherical photographs taken in the same poin
ts in August 1992, 1993, and 1994 at three temperate forests in Britai
n. We analyzed the change in percentage canopy openness in time and fo
und that canopy closure occurred exponentially. These results were use
d to build a matrix model that incorporated canopy dynamics as a linea
r Markov-chain process of forest succession by classifying forest patc
hes into types (according to percentage canopy openness) and calculati
ng the probability of each patch type becoming the following patch typ
e in one year's time. Standard matrix analysis allowed us to project f
orest structure (i.e., the proportion of patches of each type) at equi
librium, and to explore the effect of different disturbance rates on c
anopy dynamics. Simulations showed that higher disturbance rates resul
t in a lower proportion of the forest under closed-canopy conditions,
and that variation in disturbance rate has a dramatic effect on turnov
er rate. Forest dynamics studies could be based on a patch characteriz
ation system based on a quantitative scale of percentage canopy openne
ss, which would make comparisons between forests possible.